10XSC measures supply chain risk for businesses trading into and out of India. It covers six areas — the shipping lanes cargo crosses, the factory calendars of supplier countries, input prices, demand, trade rules and natural hazards — and scores each against its own normal rather than against an absolute scale.
It is free, requires no login, and sells nothing.
How the scoring works
Every score is relative to that measure’s own baseline. The bands are 0 to 32 normal, 33 to 66 watch, and 67 to 100 disrupted.
Most measures use two baselines at once: recent weeks, and a fixed reference year. The worse of the two sets the score. A rolling window alone goes blind to a long disruption, because a crisis that lasts six months eventually becomes the new normal it is being measured against.
Direction is handled differently by domain. Heavy shipping traffic through a chokepoint is flagged but never called disrupted, because congestion is not the same as closure. More export cargo is treated as good news. For domestic consumption, it is slowing growth that matters, not acceleration.
The same rule applies country by country. Twenty new sanctions designations is an ordinary month for China and an extraordinary one for Brazil, so supplier countries are scored on how far above their own usual rate a month is running, not on the raw count. Where a country is seldom designated at all, the count itself is the signal.
The number at the centre of the wheel is the weighted average of the domains that are live, with trade routes counted double because it is the domain with daily data behind it. Domains still being built are drawn as empty outlines and left out of the composite entirely, rather than counted as zero.
The composite is India-facing, not global. Trade routes weight the chokepoints Indian trade actually crosses — Hormuz, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Malacca and the Cape — above the rest, and track Indian ports rather than world ports. Source countries follow the production calendars of the countries India buys from. Input prices are the one exception: those are world benchmarks, the same everywhere, though the selection leans towards what India imports most. Read the number as global conditions seen from an Indian warehouse.
Scores are not comparable across domains. A 50 in input prices and a 50 in route traffic mean the same thing arithmetically — about 20% away from normal — but not that the two risks are equally serious for you. That depends on what you buy and where it comes from.
The index is rebuilt every morning, and each day’s scores are recorded. Nothing on the site reads that record yet — it exists because a trend can only be collected forward, and a day not recorded cannot be recovered.
Where the data comes from
- IMF PortWatch — chokepoint transits, port calls and import tonnage. These are estimates derived from vessel tracking, not port authority counts. 10XSC is not affiliated with or endorsed by the IMF.
- World Bank Pink Sheet — monthly prices for 26 commodities.
- GDACS — automatic hazard alerts, which do not replace official warnings. For safety, follow the NDMA and the India Meteorological Department.
- US Treasury OFAC — sanctions lists, compared week to week, and tracked for each supplier country against that country’s own usual rate.
- Ministry of Finance, GSTN and NPCI — monthly GST, e-way bill and UPI figures, entered manually.
- Production calendars and trade measures — compiled from government announcements, lunar calendars and gazette notifications.
- Supplier disruptions — wars, export bans and strikes, entered by hand, because no free feed reports them reliably.
- Natural Earth — map coastlines.
What this is not
- Not advice of any kind, and not a sanctions compliance screen.
- Not a forecast. A score of 60 does not mean a 60% chance of anything.
- Not real time. Data lags, often by weeks, and in the case of the monthly series by months.
- Not tailored to any specific business. Two importers reading the same number should act differently depending on what they buy and which lane it crosses.
- What counts as a normal month of sanctions activity in a given country begins as an estimate. The site replaces it with its own observations once enough have accumulated, but until then those country scores are indicative rather than measured.
Who is behind it
10XSC is an independent project, built and maintained in Bangalore. It is not affiliated with any data provider.
Contact: connect@10xsc.com