Trade Route WatchIs the route your cargo takes running normally?
Satellite vessel counts for the world's 28 maritime chokepoints and India's ports, each compared against its own recent normal. Pick your trade lane and see what stands between your supplier and your warehouse.
The full board
| Chokepoint | Vessels/day, 7d | Recent base | vs recent | 2024 base | vs 2024 | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||||
Two baselines, and why
The last seven settled days are compared against two things: the twenty-one days before them, and the lane's 2024 calendar-year average. Each gap is multiplied by 250 and capped at 100, and the worse of the two sets the score.
The second comparison exists because a rolling window goes blind to a long disruption. If a strait has been shut for seven months, last month is the new normal, and a collapse of ninety-odd percent reads as an unremarkable few percent. Measuring against 2024 as well keeps a sustained closure visible for as long as it lasts, which is the entire reason to watch it.
So read the two columns differently. The recent figure tells you what changed this week. The 2024 figure tells you how far from normal the lane still is. The headline percentage beside each lane is whichever of the two is further from normal, so the number you see first is always the one driving the colour.
Direction matters as much as size. A lane carrying fewer ships than normal is the risk, and can reach Disrupted. A lane carrying more is usually absorbing traffic that a closed strait has pushed onto it, so it is capped at Watch and labelled Above normal. When Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb shut, the lanes around them rose; that is a symptom, not a second problem.
Indian ports, last seven days
Port calls are the count of vessels entering and leaving. A sustained drop can mean congestion, weather closure, or cargo shifting to a neighbouring port. Import and export figures are cargo tonnage estimated from how deep each ship sits in the water before and after its call.
| Port | Calls/day, 7d | Baseline | Change | Import t/day | Export t/day | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||||
What this does and doesn't tell you
Routes here are the standard deep-sea lanes for each trade. Your carrier may use another, and transhipment through Colombo, Singapore or Jebel Ali adds a leg this doesn't model. Treat it as a first read, then confirm with your forwarder.
A green route does not mean cheap. Freight rates, insurance premiums and equipment shortages move for reasons vessel counts never show. What this catches is the physical problem, usually a few days before the surcharge email arrives.